“The surge will peak very quickly and also fade rather quickly. Restrictions should be lifted incrementally to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed and other restrictions, like mask-wearing, could be held in place to reduce spread as much as possible, Dr Hunter says.

“ didn’t promote the vaccine to elderly groups until November 2021, but by this time considerable vaccine scepticism had built up … the low effectiveness of the non-mRNA Chinese vaccines were also a concern: studies indicated that protection faded fast and was undetectable after six months.” Healthcare capacityĬhina has reported far fewer deaths compared with other large nations and has one of the lowest deaths per capita in the world, but it will eventually have to open its borders, a step that will inevitably bring a surge of disease, says Dr Hunter. Writing in the Guardian, Prof Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, says reports suggest only about 40% of over-80s have received a booster shot, and millions remain unvaccinated. Vaccine scepticism and fatigue are also factors. Many infectious disease experts say China should now import the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, despite the obvious political challenges from acknowledging the shortcomings of its homegrown shots.

“Unfortunately, the vaccines in China were not very good,” says Dr Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia, adding that the vaccination levels of China’s most vulnerable people is low and much of the protection provided by the shots has now faded for those immunised long ago. Restrictive lockdown measures continue in China, nearly three years into the pandemic

Chinese lock down